Spy Strategy
This strategy rotates between two states — cash and a leveraged SPY position — buying confirmed dips in a healthy uptrend.
Two states:
- Cash: flat, 0 exposure — the default whenever no trade is open.
- Leveraged: a leveraged SPY position while a trade is on (e.g. the sized version runs ~3.15× net daily exposure = a 5× sleeve blended with cash).
Enter (cash → leveraged) when ALL of these are true on the same day:
- SPY is above its 200-day moving average (bull), and that 200-MA is rising;
- SPY has pulled back ≥3% from its all-time high;
- the day is an up (green) candle that closes above the prior day's high.
Stop = that day's low; once the trade is up 2× its risk (1:2), the stop moves to break-even.
Exit (leveraged → cash) on whichever comes first:
- Target: SPY closes ≥3.5% above its 20-day MA (mean-reversion take-profit), or
- Stop: SPY closes below the current stop.
Then it waits in cash for the next qualifying dip.
The 3× and 5× versions use the same signal but stay in 1× SPY between trades (always invested); the sized version parks in cash between trades, which is what brings its drawdown down to roughly SPY's own.
SPY Price Chart
Backtest Results
Price-return, daily-rebalanced, fill-at-close, no fees/financing/slippage
| Variant | CAGR | Max Drawdown |
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Trade Statistics
Leverage-independent, from closed trades only
| # Trades | Win Rate | Avg Win | Avg Loss |
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Performance & Drawdown
Cumulative Return since 1993 (log scale) — selected strategy vs. SPY buy & hold — with drawdown below