Spy Strategy

This strategy rotates between two states — cash and a leveraged SPY position — buying confirmed dips in a healthy uptrend.

Two states:

  • Cash: flat, 0 exposure — the default whenever no trade is open.
  • Leveraged: a leveraged SPY position while a trade is on (e.g. the sized version runs ~3.15× net daily exposure = a 5× sleeve blended with cash).

Enter (cash → leveraged) when ALL of these are true on the same day:

  • SPY is above its 200-day moving average (bull), and that 200-MA is rising;
  • SPY has pulled back ≥3% from its all-time high;
  • the day is an up (green) candle that closes above the prior day's high.

Stop = that day's low; once the trade is up 2× its risk (1:2), the stop moves to break-even.

Exit (leveraged → cash) on whichever comes first:

  • Target: SPY closes ≥3.5% above its 20-day MA (mean-reversion take-profit), or
  • Stop: SPY closes below the current stop.

Then it waits in cash for the next qualifying dip.

The 3× and 5× versions use the same signal but stay in 1× SPY between trades (always invested); the sized version parks in cash between trades, which is what brings its drawdown down to roughly SPY's own.

SPY Price Chart

Backtest Results

Price-return, daily-rebalanced, fill-at-close, no fees/financing/slippage

Variant CAGR Max Drawdown
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Trade Statistics

Leverage-independent, from closed trades only

# Trades Win Rate Avg Win Avg Loss
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Performance & Drawdown

Cumulative Return since 1993 (log scale) — selected strategy vs. SPY buy & hold — with drawdown below